Bet with MINO CASINO →Birmingham v Millwall is on 3 November 2026 · 20:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham); David Webb takes charge. We think Birmingham (48%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Birmingham vs Millwall: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.86 |
| Market average | 1.94 | 3.57 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 1.90 | 3.23 | 3.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.23 | 75.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.79 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 2.00 | 47.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 2.91 | 32.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.12 | 43.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Birmingham 1–1 Millwall, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Birmingham 6th (23 points), Millwall 12th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Birmingham 6W 5D 2L (23:13), Millwall 5W 3D 5L (23:21).
- H2H: 24 matches: Birmingham 8W 8D 8L, goals 35–26.
- Absences: Birmingham 3, Millwall 7.
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Birmingham vs Millwall: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Birmingham vs Millwall: who is missing
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- A. Priskeabsence · doubtful
Millwall
- T. Arconteankle injury · will miss the match
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- J. Metcalfeabsence · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Birmingham vs Millwall: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Birmingham
Home and away
Birmingham vs Millwall: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Birmingham are 6th with 23 points after 13 matches (6W 5D 2L), whereas Millwall are 12th with 18 points (5W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Birmingham have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Millwall average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Birmingham: 6W 5D 2L, goals 23–13; Millwall: 5W 3D 5L, goals 23–21.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, Birmingham have 8 wins, Millwall have 8 wins and 8 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 35–26.
What to expect
Birmingham should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; Birmingham 8 wins, 8 draws, Millwall 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Birmingham 23–13, Millwall 23–21.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Birmingham 3, Millwall 7.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 56%, best available odds 1.67). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Birmingham are missing: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Millwall are without: T. Arconte, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Birmingham vs Millwall: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BirminghamWLWWWMillwallWLDLWBirmingham vs Millwall: head to head
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Birmingham vs Millwall: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our result tip is Birmingham to win (odds 2.02), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.67). The safer pick is Birmingham or draw (1X).
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our probabilities: Birmingham to win 48%, a draw 26%, Millwall to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
3 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Referee: David Webb.
Who will be missing?
Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Millwall: T. Arconte, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, M. Luongo. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.83); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.5%); after that come 1–0 (10.0%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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