Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Cardiff v Birmingham is on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff); Tim Robinson, England takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Cardiff are 17th with 14 points after 13 matches (3W 5D 5L), whereas Birmingham are 6th with 23 points (6W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Cardiff have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Birmingham average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Cardiff: 2W 5D 4L, goals 18–17; Birmingham: 5W 5D 1L, goals 20–11.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, Cardiff have 13 wins, Birmingham have 3 wins and 8 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 35–18.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; Cardiff 13 wins, 8 draws, Birmingham 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Cardiff 18–17, Birmingham 20–11.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 62%.
- Absent: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Alternative tip: Draw or Birmingham (X2)
Alternative pick: Draw or Birmingham (X2) (probability 63%, best available odds 1.55). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Cardiff are missing: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham are without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.65 | 3.88 | 2.57 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.72 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.43 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.50 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.28 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.67 | 34.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Cardiff 17th (14 points), Birmingham 6th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: Cardiff 2W 5D 4L (18:17), Birmingham 5W 5D 1L (20:11).
- H2H: 24 matches: Cardiff 13W 8D 3L, goals 35–18.
- Absences: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Cardiff vs Birmingham: who is missing
Cardiff
- C. Chambersknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lawlorhamstring injury · will miss the match
- G. Oshored card · will miss the match
- R. Colwillankle injury · doubtful
- P. Ngnot in the squad · doubtful
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Cardiff
Home and away
Cardiff vs Birmingham: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
CardiffLWDWLBirminghamWLWWWCardiff vs Birmingham: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Cardiff vs Birmingham: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Birmingham +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.57); Both teams to score (1.45).
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our probabilities: Cardiff to win 37%, a draw 25%, Birmingham to win 38%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Referee: Tim Robinson, England.
Who will be missing?
Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.56); under 2.5 goals is at 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.45).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.4%); after that come 1–2 (8.3%) and 2–1 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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