Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lincoln meet Birmingham on 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln), refereed by Lewis Smith. We expect very little between them. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lincoln are 16th with 15 points after 13 matches (4W 3D 6L), whereas Birmingham are 6th with 23 points (6W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Lincoln have scored 1.1 and conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Birmingham average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 4W 3D 5L, goals 13–20; Birmingham: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In their 4 meetings so far, Lincoln have 0 wins, Birmingham have 4 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 3–9.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 4; Lincoln 0 wins, 0 draws, Birmingham 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lincoln 13–20, Birmingham 20–12.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 49%.
- Absent: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 54%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lincoln are missing: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Birmingham are without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.47 | 3.51 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.28 | 3.38 | 2.14 |
| Lowest odds | 2.95 | 2.99 | 2.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.92 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.87 | 50.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 3.25 | 28.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 09:42. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 16th (15 points), Birmingham 6th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 4W 3D 5L (13:20), Birmingham 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 4 matches: Lincoln 0W 0D 4L, goals 3–9.
- Absences: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lincoln vs Birmingham: who is missing
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- A. Priskeabsence · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Home and away
Lincoln vs Birmingham: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LincolnLWDLLBirminghamWLWWWLincoln vs Birmingham: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lincoln vs Birmingham: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our result tip is Draw or Birmingham (X2) (odds 1.35), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.73). The safer pick is Draw or Birmingham (X2).
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our probabilities: Lincoln to win 29%, a draw 28%, Birmingham to win 44%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Lewis Smith.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 49% (odds 2.01); under 2.5 goals is at 51% (odds 1.91).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.4%); after that come 0–1 (10.8%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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