Bet with MINO CASINO →Aston Villa are at home to Sunderland on 21 November 2026 · 15:00 at Villa Park (Birmingham). Our favourites are Aston Villa (49%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Aston Villa are 10th with 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), whereas Sunderland are 20th with 5 points (1W 2D 6L).
What to expect
Aston Villa should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Aston Villa are missing: no absences. Sunderland are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.02 | 3.82 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.96 | 3.62 | 3.80 |
| Lowest odds | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.26 | 74.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.85 | 51.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 2.00 | 48.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.08 | 30.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.69 | 54.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.07 | 45.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:43. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Sunderland 20th (5 points).
- Absences: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: who is missing
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
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Aston Villa vs Sunderland: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Over 2.5 goals (1.92); Aston Villa to win (2.02).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our probabilities: Aston Villa to win 49%, a draw 26%, Sunderland to win 25%.
What time and where is kick-off?
21 November 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Villa Park, Birmingham.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.92); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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