Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland are at home to Leeds on 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), with Stuart Attwell as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Sunderland vs Leeds: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Market average | 2.95 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.21 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.68 | 56.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.20 | 4.01 | 23.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Leeds, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Sunderland 20th (5 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 1D 5L (6:14), Leeds 2W 4D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 11 matches: Sunderland 3W 5D 3L, goals 8–9.
- Absences: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sunderland vs Leeds: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sunderland vs Leeds: who is missing
Sunderland
- D. Ballardmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Dansored card · will miss the match
- R. Mundleknee injury · will miss the match
- W. Isidorinjury · doubtful
- T. Meuniermuscle injury · doubtful
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Calvert-Lewinfoot injury · doubtful
- N. Okaforgroin injury · doubtful
- A. Stachgroin injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Leeds: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sunderland
Home and away
Sunderland vs Leeds: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sunderland are 20th with 5 points after 9 matches (1W 2D 6L), whereas Leeds are 12th with 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Sunderland have scored 0.9 and conceded 2.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Leeds average 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 1D 5L, goals 6–14; Leeds: 2W 4D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. In their 11 meetings so far, Sunderland have 3 wins, Leeds have 3 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 8–9.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (13.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74), and our probability for it is 57%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 11; Sunderland 3 wins, 5 draws, Leeds 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sunderland 6–14, Leeds 9–6.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 43%.
- Absent: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.91). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sunderland are missing: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds are without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Leeds: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SunderlandLDLLLLeedsLDDLDSunderland vs Leeds: head to head
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Sunderland vs Leeds: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our result tip is Draw or Leeds (X2) (odds 1.44), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74). The safer pick is Draw or Leeds (X2).
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our probabilities: Sunderland to win 32%, a draw 31%, Leeds to win 37%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:30, at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: Stuart Attwell.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 43% (odds 2.27); under 2.5 goals is at 57% (odds 1.74).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.91).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (13.0%); after that come 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.