Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Aston Villa v Manchester City is on 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Villa Park (Birmingham); Peter Bankes, England takes charge. We think Manchester City (59%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.18 | 4.51 | 1.68 |
| Market average | 4.92 | 4.43 | 1.63 |
| Lowest odds | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.12 | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | 1.44 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 34.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.09 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.52 | 36.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 09:44. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester City, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Manchester City 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Aston Villa 2W 2D 3L (7:11), Manchester City 7W 0D 0L (19:7).
- H2H: 30 matches: Aston Villa 8W 2D 20L, goals 29–69.
- Absences: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: who is missing
Aston Villa
- A. Onanaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ruggerimuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Wan-Bissakamuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Manzambicalf injury · doubtful
Manchester City
- A. Semenyoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Kovacicinjury · doubtful
- M. Nunesknock · doubtful
- N. O'Reillyback injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Aston Villa are 10th with 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), whereas Manchester City are 2nd with 21 points (7W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Aston Villa have scored 1.0 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Manchester City average 2.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Aston Villa: 2W 2D 3L, goals 7–11; Manchester City: 7W 0D 0L, goals 19–7.
- Head to head. In their 30 meetings so far, Aston Villa have 8 wins, Manchester City have 20 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 29–69.
What to expect
Manchester City should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 30; Aston Villa 8 wins, 2 draws, Manchester City 20 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Aston Villa 7–11, Manchester City 19–7.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Absent: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Aston Villa are missing: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Manchester City are without: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Aston VillaDWWDWManchester CityLLWWWAston Villa vs Manchester City: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Our result tip is Manchester City to win (odds 1.68), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46). The safer pick is Draw or Manchester City (X2).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Our probabilities: Aston Villa to win 20%, a draw 22%, Manchester City to win 59%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Villa Park, Birmingham. Referee: Peter Bankes, England.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Manchester City: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.46); under 2.5 goals is at 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.7%); after that come 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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