Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth are at home to Sunderland on 18 October 2026 · 14:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with Craig Pawson, England as the referee. Our favourites are Bournemouth (46%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bournemouth are 8th with 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), whereas Sunderland are 20th with 5 points (1W 2D 6L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Absent: Bournemouth 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.85). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bournemouth are missing: no absences. Sunderland are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.14 | 3.43 | 4.15 |
| Market average | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.78 |
| Lowest odds | 2.04 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.32 | 71.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.08 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.77 | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.54 | 26.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.91 | 48.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 18/10/26, 12:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 8th (12 points), Sunderland 20th (5 points).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: who is missing
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
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Bournemouth vs Sunderland: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our result tip is Bournemouth to win (odds 2.14), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81). The safer pick is Bournemouth or draw (1X).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our probabilities: Bournemouth to win 46%, a draw 29%, Sunderland to win 25%.
What time and where is kick-off?
18 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: Craig Pawson, England.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.22); under 2.5 goals is at 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.85).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.5%); after that come 1–0 (11.9%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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