Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle are at home to Aston Villa on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at St James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne), with Jarred Gillett as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Newcastle are 13th with 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L), whereas Aston Villa are 10th with 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Newcastle are missing: no absences. Aston Villa are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.94 |
| Market average | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.35 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 13:52. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Aston Villa 10th (12 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: who is missing
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our result tip is Newcastle or draw (1X) (odds 1.46), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Newcastle or draw (1X).
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our probabilities: Newcastle to win 40%, a draw 26%, Aston Villa to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.58); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.0%); after that come 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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