Bet with MINO CASINO →Wrexham are at home to Middlesbrough on 4 November 2026 · 19:45 at Racecourse Ground (Wrexham), with Oliver Langford as the referee. Our favourites are Middlesbrough (53%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Wrexham are 18th with 14 points after 13 matches (3W 5D 5L), whereas Middlesbrough are 1st with 28 points (8W 4D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Wrexham have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Middlesbrough average 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Wrexham: 3W 5D 5L, goals 15–19; Middlesbrough: 8W 4D 1L, goals 30–17.
- Head to head. In their 3 meetings so far, Wrexham have 0 wins, Middlesbrough have 1 win and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 3–4.
What to expect
Middlesbrough should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.51), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 3; Wrexham 0 wins, 2 draws, Middlesbrough 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Wrexham 15–19, Middlesbrough 30–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 58%.
- Absent: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.65). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Wrexham are missing: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Middlesbrough are without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.35 | 4.13 | 1.80 |
| Market average | 4.15 | 3.89 | 1.75 |
| Lowest odds | 3.73 | 3.40 | 1.71 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.22 | 42.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.57 | 36.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.65 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wrexham 18th (14 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Wrexham 3W 5D 5L (15:19), Middlesbrough 8W 4D 1L (30:17).
- H2H: 3 matches: Wrexham 0W 2D 1L, goals 3–4.
- Absences: Wrexham 4, Middlesbrough 2.
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: who is missing
Wrexham
- N. Broadheadthigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Cacacecalf injury · will miss the match
- J. Windassankle injury · will miss the match
- S. Revanhamstring injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wrexham
Home and away
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
WrexhamLLWLDMiddlesbroughWWDWWWrexham vs Middlesbrough: head to head
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Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our result tip is Middlesbrough to win (odds 1.80), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.51). The safer pick is Draw or Middlesbrough (X2).
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our probabilities: Wrexham to win 23%, a draw 24%, Middlesbrough to win 53%.
What time and where is kick-off?
4 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Racecourse Ground, Wrexham. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Who will be missing?
Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, J. Windass, S. Revan. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 58% (odds 1.67); under 2.5 goals is at 42% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.65).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.6%); after that come 1–2 (9.8%) and 0–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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