Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Middlesbrough are at home to Charlton on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough), with Will Finnie as the referee. Our favourites are Middlesbrough (76%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Middlesbrough are 1st with 28 points after 13 matches (8W 4D 1L), whereas Charlton are 20th with 14 points (3W 5D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Middlesbrough have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Charlton average 0.9 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Middlesbrough: 7W 4D 1L, goals 27–17; Charlton: 3W 5D 4L, goals 11–18.
- Head to head. In their 13 meetings so far, Middlesbrough have 9 wins, Charlton have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 21–8.
What to expect
Middlesbrough should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–0 (10.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.26, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.85), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 13; Middlesbrough 9 wins, 2 draws, Charlton 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Middlesbrough 27–17, Charlton 11–18.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Middlesbrough 3, Charlton 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 52%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Middlesbrough are missing: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Charlton are without: R. Apter, C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah, M. Godden. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.26 | 6.80 | 11.50 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.31 | 10.43 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 5.32 | 7.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 32.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 1.99 | 47.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.79 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.97 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Middlesbrough 2–0 Charlton, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Middlesbrough 1st (28 points), Charlton 20th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Middlesbrough 7W 4D 1L (27:17), Charlton 3W 5D 4L (11:18).
- H2H: 13 matches: Middlesbrough 9W 2D 2L, goals 21–8.
- Absences: Middlesbrough 3, Charlton 4.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: who is missing
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · doubtful
- D. Strelecinjury · doubtful
Charlton
- R. Apterknee injury · will miss the match
- C. Sichenjeknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Chalobahmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Goddenmuscle injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Middlesbrough
Home and away
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MiddlesbroughWWDWWCharltonLLLDDMiddlesbrough vs Charlton: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Middlesbrough -1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.85).
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our probabilities: Middlesbrough to win 76%, a draw 15%, Charlton to win 9%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough. Referee: Will Finnie.
Who will be missing?
Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Charlton: R. Apter, C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah, M. Godden. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.42); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 52% probability (odds 1.87).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–0 (10.6%); after that come 3–0 (9.4%) and 2–1 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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