Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Valladolid v Leganés is on 2 November 2026 · 17:30 at Estadio José Zorrilla (Valladolid); Damaso Arcediano Monescillo takes charge. We think Valladolid (48%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Valladolid vs Leganés: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Valladolid are 13th with 15 points after 12 matches (4W 3D 5L), whereas Leganés are 17th with 12 points (3W 3D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Valladolid have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Leganés average 0.6 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Valladolid: 3W 3D 5L, goals 16–16; Leganés: 3W 3D 5L, goals 7–16.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Valladolid have 4 wins, Leganés have 6 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 15–24.
What to expect
Valladolid should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Valladolid 4 wins, 4 draws, Leganés 6 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Valladolid 16–16, Leganés 7–16.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Absent: Valladolid 0, Leganés 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Valladolid are missing: no absences. Leganés are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Valladolid vs Leganés: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.00 | 3.64 | 4.00 |
| Market average | 1.94 | 3.44 | 3.84 |
| Lowest odds | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.32 | 70.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.04 | 46.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.75 | 53.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.93 | 3.64 | 25.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.83 | 50.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.87 | 49.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 2/11/26, 16:44. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Valladolid 1–1 Leganés, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Valladolid 13th (15 points), Leganés 17th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Valladolid 3W 3D 5L (16:16), Leganés 3W 3D 5L (7:16).
- H2H: 14 matches: Valladolid 4W 4D 6L, goals 15–24.
- Absences: Valladolid 0, Leganés 0.
Who will win Valladolid vs Leganés?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Valladolid vs Leganés: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Valladolid vs Leganés: who is missing
Valladolid
- No reported absences
Leganés
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Valladolid vs Leganés: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 | Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valladolid
Home and away
Valladolid vs Leganés: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ValladolidWLLWDLeganésLDLLLValladolid vs Leganés: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Valladolid vs Leganés: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Valladolid vs Leganés?
Our result tip is Valladolid to win (odds 2.00), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81). The safer pick is Valladolid or draw (1X).
Who will win Valladolid vs Leganés?
Our probabilities: Valladolid to win 48%, a draw 27%, Leganés to win 24%.
What time and where is kick-off?
2 November 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid. Referee: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo.
Who will be missing?
Valladolid: no absences. Leganés: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.15); under 2.5 goals is at 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.87).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.3%); after that come 1–0 (12.3%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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