Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Leganés are at home to Mallorca on 24 October 2026 · 15:15 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganés), with O. Rivera Olmedo as the referee. Our favourites are Mallorca (49%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Leganés vs Mallorca: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Leganés are 17th with 12 points after 12 matches (3W 3D 6L), whereas Mallorca are 5th with 22 points (6W 4D 2L).
- Head to head. In their 7 meetings so far, Leganés have 1 win, Mallorca have 3 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 3–5.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 0–1 (13.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), and our probability for it is 57%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 7; Leganés 1 win, 3 draws, Mallorca 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.1 goals.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 43%.
- Absent: Leganés 0, Mallorca 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.82). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Leganés are missing: no absences. Mallorca are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Leganés vs Mallorca: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.54 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Market average | 4.11 | 3.29 | 1.94 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.36 | 68.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.18 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.67 | 56.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.10 | 3.87 | 24.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.93 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.82 | 1.80 | 51.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 14:13. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Leganés 0–1 Mallorca, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Leganés 17th (12 points), Mallorca 5th (22 points).
- H2H: 7 matches: Leganés 1W 3D 3L, goals 3–5.
- Absences: Leganés 0, Mallorca 0.
Who will win Leganés vs Mallorca?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Leganés vs Mallorca: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Leganés vs Mallorca: who is missing
Leganés
- No reported absences
Mallorca
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Leganés vs Mallorca: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 | Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
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Leganés vs Mallorca: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Leganés vs Mallorca?
Mallorca -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 2.5 goals (1.76).
Who will win Leganés vs Mallorca?
Our probabilities: Leganés to win 23%, a draw 29%, Mallorca to win 49%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 15:15, at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés. Referee: O. Rivera Olmedo.
Who will be missing?
Leganés: no absences. Mallorca: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 43% (odds 2.30); under 2.5 goals is at 57% (odds 1.76).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.93).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–1 (13.2%); after that come 1–1 (12.5%) and 0–2 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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