Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Valencia v Villarreal is on 24 October 2026 · 17:30 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valdivia); Alejandro Quintero González, Spain takes charge. We think Villarreal (46%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Valencia vs Villarreal: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.55 | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.59 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.13 | 44.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.77 | 34.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Valencia 1–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Valencia 19th (9 points), Villarreal 9th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Valencia 1W 3D 5L (6:15), Villarreal 2W 3D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 35 matches: Valencia 14W 7D 14L, goals 47–42.
- Absences: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Valencia vs Villarreal: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Valencia vs Villarreal: who is missing
Valencia
- S. Canosknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Copeteknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Foulquierknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lopezknee injury · will miss the match
- U. Sadiqmuscle injury · will miss the match
Villarreal
- N. Pepeabsence · will miss the match
- C. Romeroinjury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Valencia vs Villarreal: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valencia
Home and away
Valencia vs Villarreal: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Valencia are 19th with 9 points after 11 matches (2W 3D 6L), whereas Villarreal are 9th with 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Valencia have scored 0.7 and conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Villarreal average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Valencia: 1W 3D 5L, goals 6–15; Villarreal: 2W 3D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. In their 35 meetings so far, Valencia have 14 wins, Villarreal have 14 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 47–42.
What to expect
Villarreal should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 35; Valencia 14 wins, 7 draws, Villarreal 14 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Valencia 6–15, Villarreal 13–13.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Valencia are missing: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal are without: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Valencia vs Villarreal: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ValenciaWLDDLVillarrealLWDLWValencia vs Villarreal: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Valencia vs Villarreal: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our result tip is Villarreal to win (odds 2.17), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47). The safer pick is Draw or Villarreal (X2).
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our probabilities: Valencia to win 28%, a draw 27%, Villarreal to win 46%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Referee: Alejandro Quintero González, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.79); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.