Bet with MINO CASINO →Valencia v Real Madrid is on 7 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia). We think Real Madrid (72%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Valencia are 19th with 9 points after 11 matches (2W 3D 6L), whereas Real Madrid are 3rd with 27 points (9W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Valencia have scored 0.7 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Real Madrid average 2.5 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Valencia: 2W 3D 6L, goals 8–17; Real Madrid: 9W 0D 2L, goals 28–10.
- Head to head. In their 34 meetings so far, Valencia have 6 wins, Real Madrid have 19 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 42–77.
What to expect
Real Madrid should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–3, about 4 goals combined, and 0–2 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.80), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 34; Valencia 6 wins, 9 draws, Real Madrid 19 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Valencia 8–17, Real Madrid 28–10.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Absent: Valencia 0, Real Madrid 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.80). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Valencia are missing: no absences. Real Madrid are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 9.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 |
| Market average | 8.34 | 5.81 | 1.30 |
| Lowest odds | 7.14 | 5.22 | 1.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 67.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.03 | 47.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.69 | 55.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.13 | 2.07 | 45.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Valencia 19th (9 points), Real Madrid 3rd (27 points).
- Form in the competition: Valencia 2W 3D 6L (8:17), Real Madrid 9W 0D 2L (28:10).
- H2H: 34 matches: Valencia 6W 9D 19L, goals 42–77.
- Absences: Valencia 0, Real Madrid 0.
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Valencia vs Real Madrid: who is missing
Valencia
- No reported absences
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valencia
Home and away
Valencia vs Real Madrid: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ValenciaWLDDLReal MadridWWWWLValencia vs Real Madrid: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Valencia vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Our result tip is Real Madrid to win (odds 1.36), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.80). The safer pick is Draw or Real Madrid (X2).
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Our probabilities: Valencia to win 11%, a draw 16%, Real Madrid to win 72%.
What time and where is kick-off?
7 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia.
Who will be missing?
Valencia: no absences. Real Madrid: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 67% (odds 1.44); under 2.5 goals is at 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.80).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–2 (9.8%); after that come 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–3 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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