Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool are at home to Villarreal on 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool), with Szymon Marciniak as the referee. Our favourites are Liverpool (62%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Liverpool are 3rd with 9 points after 3 matches (3W 0D 0L), whereas Villarreal are 19th with 3 points (1W 0D 2L).
- Head to head. In their 5 meetings so far, Liverpool have 4 wins, Villarreal have 1 win and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 12–6.
What to expect
Liverpool should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 5; Liverpool 4 wins, 0 draws, Villarreal 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.6 goals.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Absent: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 61%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Liverpool are missing: no absences. Villarreal are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.62 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Market average | 1.54 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.46 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.47 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 36.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.20 | 43.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.36 | 39.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Liverpool 2–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Liverpool 3rd (9 points), Villarreal 19th (3 points).
- H2H: 5 matches: Liverpool 4W 0D 1L, goals 12–6.
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Villarreal 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Liverpool vs Villarreal: who is missing
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Villarreal
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2-0-1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1-2-0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0-1-2 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:13 | 0 |
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Liverpool vs Villarreal: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our result tip is Liverpool to win (odds 1.62), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51). The safer pick is Liverpool or draw (1X).
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our probabilities: Liverpool to win 62%, a draw 21%, Villarreal to win 17%.
What time and where is kick-off?
20 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: Szymon Marciniak.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Villarreal: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 64% (odds 1.51); under 2.5 goals is at 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 61% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.8%); after that come 1–1 (8.9%) and 2–0 (8.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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