Bet with MINO CASINO →Sunderland v Chelsea is on 8 November 2026 · 14:00 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). We think Chelsea (47%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sunderland are 20th with 5 points after 9 matches (1W 2D 6L), whereas Chelsea are 4th with 16 points (5W 1D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Sunderland have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Chelsea average 2.1 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 2D 6L, goals 7–17; Chelsea: 5W 1D 3L, goals 19–15.
- Head to head. In their 17 meetings so far, Sunderland have 6 wins, Chelsea have 10 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 25–34.
What to expect
Chelsea should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 17; Sunderland 6 wins, 1 draw, Chelsea 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sunderland 7–17, Chelsea 19–15.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Sunderland 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 56%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sunderland are missing: no absences. Chelsea are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.72 | 3.82 | 2.06 |
| Market average | 3.57 | 3.59 | 2.00 |
| Lowest odds | 3.23 | 3.16 | 1.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.81 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 2.01 | 47.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 31.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.15 | 2.09 | 44.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:43. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sunderland 20th (5 points), Chelsea 4th (16 points).
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 2D 6L (7:17), Chelsea 5W 1D 3L (19:15).
- H2H: 17 matches: Sunderland 6W 1D 10L, goals 25–34.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Sunderland vs Chelsea: who is missing
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sunderland
Home and away
Sunderland vs Chelsea: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SunderlandLDLLLChelseaWLWWLSunderland vs Chelsea: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sunderland vs Chelsea: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Our result tip is Chelsea to win (odds 2.06), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.73). The safer pick is Draw or Chelsea (X2).
Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Our probabilities: Sunderland to win 26%, a draw 26%, Chelsea to win 47%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Stadium of Light, Sunderland.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.87); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 0–1 (10.2%) and 1–2 (9.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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