Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Chelsea meet Manchester United on 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Stamford Bridge (London), refereed by Peter Bankes. Chelsea (48%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.05 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.60 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.46 | 2.35 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.52 | 2.44 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Chelsea 4th (16 points), Manchester United 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Chelsea 4W 1D 3L (17:15), Manchester United 1W 4D 3L (10:13).
- H2H: 41 matches: Chelsea 14W 14D 13L, goals 53–55.
- Absences: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Chelsea vs Manchester United: who is missing
Chelsea
- A. Anselminoinjury · will miss the match
- J. Gittensankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Hatoinjury · will miss the match
- R. Jamesknee injury · will miss the match
- Joao Pedrothigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Lacroixmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Martinezabsence · will miss the match
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Chelsea
Home and away
Chelsea vs Manchester United: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Chelsea are 4th with 16 points after 9 matches (5W 1D 3L), whereas Manchester United are 17th with 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Chelsea have scored 2.1 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Manchester United average 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Chelsea: 4W 1D 3L, goals 17–15; Manchester United: 1W 4D 3L, goals 10–13.
- Head to head. In their 41 meetings so far, Chelsea have 14 wins, Manchester United have 13 wins and 14 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 53–55.
What to expect
Chelsea should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.55), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 41; Chelsea 14 wins, 14 draws, Manchester United 13 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Chelsea 17–15, Manchester United 10–13.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.55). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Chelsea are missing: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United are without: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ChelseaWLWWLManchester UnitedLLDDDChelsea vs Manchester United: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Chelsea vs Manchester United: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our result tip is Chelsea to win (odds 2.05), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.55). The safer pick is Chelsea or draw (1X).
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our probabilities: Chelsea to win 48%, a draw 25%, Manchester United to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Stamford Bridge, London. Referee: Peter Bankes.
Who will be missing?
Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.64); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.46).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.55).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.5%); after that come 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.