Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano meet Elche on 24 October 2026 · 13:00 at Estadio de Vallecas (Madrid), refereed by Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain. Rayo Vallecano (54%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Rayo Vallecano are 12th with 12 points after 10 matches (3W 3D 4L), whereas Elche are 17th with 10 points (2W 4D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Rayo Vallecano have scored 1.5 and conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Elche average 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Rayo Vallecano: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–17; Elche: 1W 4D 4L, goals 11–17.
- Head to head. In their 16 meetings so far, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, Elche have 9 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 18–29.
What to expect
Rayo Vallecano should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 16; Rayo Vallecano 5 wins, 2 draws, Elche 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Rayo Vallecano 12–17, Elche 11–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Rayo Vallecano 5, Elche 1.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 54%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Rayo Vallecano are missing: A. Batalla, P. Ciss, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, A. Ratiu. Elche are without: M. Aguado. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.82 | 3.96 | 4.78 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.85 | 4.59 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 1.80 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 2.01 | 47.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.73 | 53.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.02 | 46.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 10:20. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Elche, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rayo Vallecano 12th (12 points), Elche 17th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Rayo Vallecano 2W 3D 3L (12:17), Elche 1W 4D 4L (11:17).
- H2H: 16 matches: Rayo Vallecano 5W 2D 9L, goals 18–29.
- Absences: Rayo Vallecano 5, Elche 1.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: who is missing
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batallaabsence · will miss the match
- P. Cissabsence · will miss the match
- Luiz Felipeknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Ntekaback injury · doubtful
- A. Ratiumuscle injury · doubtful
Elche
- M. Aguadoankle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Rayo Vallecano
Home and away
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Rayo VallecanoWLDDWElcheLWDDWRayo Vallecano vs Elche: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our result tip is Rayo Vallecano to win (odds 1.82), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.75). The safer pick is Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X).
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our probabilities: Rayo Vallecano to win 54%, a draw 25%, Elche to win 21%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 13:00, at Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid. Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Rayo Vallecano: A. Batalla, P. Ciss, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, A. Ratiu. Elche: M. Aguado. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.88); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.75).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 1–0 (11.2%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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