Bet with MINO CASINO →Portsmouth are at home to Swansea on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Fratton Park (Portsmouth), with Matthew Corlett as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Portsmouth are 11th with 19 points after 13 matches (5W 4D 4L), whereas Swansea are 2nd with 26 points (8W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Portsmouth have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Swansea average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Portsmouth: 5W 4D 4L, goals 16–15; Swansea: 8W 2D 3L, goals 20–13.
- Head to head. In their 4 meetings so far, Portsmouth have 1 win, Swansea have 2 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 7–5.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (13.1%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 4; Portsmouth 1 win, 1 draw, Swansea 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Portsmouth 16–15, Swansea 20–13.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 44%.
- Absent: Portsmouth 6, Swansea 3.
Alternative tip: Draw or Swansea (X2)
Alternative pick: Draw or Swansea (X2) (probability 65%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Portsmouth are missing: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Swansea are without: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.78 | 3.30 | 2.74 |
| Market average | 2.68 | 3.17 | 2.64 |
| Lowest odds | 2.52 | 2.99 | 2.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 68.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.17 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.67 | 56.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.10 | 3.89 | 24.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.88 | 1.83 | 50.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.87 | 49.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Portsmouth 1–1 Swansea, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Portsmouth 11th (19 points), Swansea 2nd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Portsmouth 5W 4D 4L (16:15), Swansea 8W 2D 3L (20:13).
- H2H: 4 matches: Portsmouth 1W 1D 2L, goals 7–5.
- Absences: Portsmouth 6, Swansea 3.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Portsmouth vs Swansea: who is missing
Portsmouth
- K. Andersonabsence · will miss the match
- B. Arthurback injury · will miss the match
- C. Bishopknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Brooke-Smithankle injury · will miss the match
- C. Ogilvieknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Swiftknee injury · will miss the match
Swansea
- C. BurgessAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Ronaldhamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. K. Yeoinjury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Portsmouth
Home and away
Portsmouth vs Swansea: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
PortsmouthDWDWWSwanseaWLLWWPortsmouth vs Swansea: head to head
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Portsmouth vs Swansea: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our result tip is Draw or Swansea (X2) (odds 1.50), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Draw or Swansea (X2).
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our probabilities: Portsmouth to win 35%, a draw 30%, Swansea to win 36%.
What time and where is kick-off?
3 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Referee: Matthew Corlett.
Who will be missing?
Portsmouth: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 44% (odds 2.24); under 2.5 goals is at 56% (odds 1.70).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 50% probability (odds 1.88).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (13.1%); after that come 0–1 (10.9%) and 1–0 (10.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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