Bet with MINO CASINO →Portsmouth are at home to Stoke City on 7 November 2026 · 12:30 at Fratton Park (Portsmouth). We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Portsmouth are 11th with 19 points after 13 matches (5W 4D 4L), whereas Stoke City are 7th with 23 points (7W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Portsmouth have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Stoke City average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Portsmouth: 5W 4D 4L, goals 16–15; Stoke City: 7W 2D 4L, goals 20–16.
- Head to head. In their 5 meetings so far, Portsmouth have 2 wins, Stoke City have 3 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 7–12.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Stoke City are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 5; Portsmouth 2 wins, 0 draws, Stoke City 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Portsmouth 16–15, Stoke City 20–16.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 44%.
- Absent: Portsmouth 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 50%, best available odds 1.90). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Portsmouth are missing: no absences. Stoke City are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Market average | 2.42 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Lowest odds | 2.39 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.35 | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.12 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.68 | 55.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.77 | 24.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.90 | 1.84 | 50.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.90 | 1.86 | 49.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Portsmouth 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Portsmouth 11th (19 points), Stoke City 7th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: Portsmouth 5W 4D 4L (16:15), Stoke City 7W 2D 4L (20:16).
- H2H: 5 matches: Portsmouth 2W 0D 3L, goals 7–12.
- Absences: Portsmouth 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: who is missing
Portsmouth
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Portsmouth
Home and away
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
PortsmouthDWDWWStoke CityWDWLWPortsmouth vs Stoke City: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Our result tip is Portsmouth or draw (1X) (odds 1.42), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Portsmouth or draw (1X).
Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Our probabilities: Portsmouth to win 39%, a draw 29%, Stoke City to win 32%.
What time and where is kick-off?
7 November 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Fratton Park, Portsmouth.
Who will be missing?
Portsmouth: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 44% (odds 2.20); under 2.5 goals is at 56% (odds 1.70).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 50% probability (odds 1.90).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.9%); after that come 1–0 (11.2%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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