Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Auxerre v Le Mans is on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre); Willy Delajod takes charge. We think Auxerre (45%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.16 | 3.70 | 3.54 |
| Market average | 2.11 | 3.62 | 3.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.21 | 77.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.70 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.17 | 44.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.70 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Auxerre 14th (10 points), Le Mans 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Auxerre 3W 0D 4L (11:17), Le Mans 1W 3D 3L (10:15).
- H2H: 6 matches: Auxerre 3W 2D 1L, goals 9–7.
- Absences: Auxerre 6, Le Mans 4.
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Auxerre vs Le Mans: who is missing
Auxerre
- A. Diousseknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Fofanagroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Labeau Lascaryinjury · will miss the match
- B. Okohknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Senayahamstring injury · will miss the match
- T. Siwemuscle injury · will miss the match
Le Mans
- A. Bourabaaankle injury · will miss the match
- E. Colasinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Laroucigroin injury · will miss the match
- H. Voyerthigh injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Auxerre
Home and away
Auxerre vs Le Mans: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Auxerre are 14th with 10 points after 9 matches (3W 1D 5L), whereas Le Mans are 17th with 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Auxerre have scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Le Mans average 1.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Auxerre: 3W 0D 4L, goals 11–17; Le Mans: 1W 3D 3L, goals 10–15.
- Head to head. In their 6 meetings so far, Auxerre have 3 wins, Le Mans have 1 win and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 9–7.
What to expect
Auxerre should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 6; Auxerre 3 wins, 2 draws, Le Mans 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Auxerre 11–17, Le Mans 10–15.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: Auxerre 6, Le Mans 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Auxerre are missing: A. Diousse, S. Fofana, R. Labeau Lascary, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe. Le Mans are without: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas, Y. Larouci, H. Voyer. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AuxerreLDWLWLe MansLDLLWAuxerre vs Le Mans: head to head
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Auxerre vs Le Mans: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our result tip is Auxerre to win (odds 2.16), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48). The safer pick is Auxerre or draw (1X).
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our probabilities: Auxerre to win 45%, a draw 26%, Le Mans to win 28%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:15, at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Referee: Willy Delajod.
Who will be missing?
Auxerre: A. Diousse, S. Fofana, R. Labeau Lascary, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe. Le Mans: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas, Y. Larouci, H. Voyer. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.77); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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