Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estoril meet Moreirense on 25 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril), refereed by C. Macedo. Estoril (52%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Estoril vs Moreirense: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Estoril are 18th with 2 points after 10 matches (0W 2D 8L), whereas Moreirense are 9th with 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Estoril have scored 0.5 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Moreirense average 1.0 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estoril: 0W 2D 6L, goals 4–12; Moreirense: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–15.
- Head to head. In their 19 meetings so far, Estoril have 6 wins, Moreirense have 6 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–25.
What to expect
Estoril should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Moreirense are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.83), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 19; Estoril 6 wins, 7 draws, Moreirense 6 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Estoril 4–12, Moreirense 8–15.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 49%.
- Absent: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.83). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Estoril are missing: no absences. Moreirense are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Estoril vs Moreirense: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.44 |
| Market average | 1.82 | 3.61 | 4.24 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.93 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.86 | 51.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.42 | 3.30 | 28.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.80 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:39. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Estoril 1–1 Moreirense, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estoril 18th (2 points), Moreirense 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Estoril 0W 2D 6L (4:12), Moreirense 2W 2D 4L (8:15).
- H2H: 19 matches: Estoril 6W 7D 6L, goals 26–25.
- Absences: Estoril 0, Moreirense 0.
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Estoril vs Moreirense: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Estoril vs Moreirense: who is missing
Estoril
- No reported absences
Moreirense
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Estoril vs Moreirense: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estoril
Home and away
Estoril vs Moreirense: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
EstorilLLLLLMoreirenseWWLDWEstoril vs Moreirense: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Estoril vs Moreirense: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our result tip is Estoril to win (odds 1.88), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.83). The safer pick is Estoril or draw (1X).
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our probabilities: Estoril to win 52%, a draw 26%, Moreirense to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 15:30, at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril. Referee: C. Macedo.
Who will be missing?
Estoril: no absences. Moreirense: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 49% (odds 2.01); under 2.5 goals is at 51% (odds 1.90).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.83).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.7%); after that come 1–0 (11.7%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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