Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Celta Vigo are at home to Alavés on 18 October 2026 · 15:15 at Municipal de Balaídos (Vigo), with José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Celta Vigo are 10th with 12 points after 11 matches (2W 6D 3L), whereas Alavés are 11th with 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–0 (13.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 39%.
- Absent: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 2.5 goals (probability 61%, best available odds 1.61). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Celta Vigo are missing: no absences. Alavés are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.37 | 3.24 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.27 | 3.15 | 3.47 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.48 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.55 | 61.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.25 | 4.89 | 19.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.05 | 2.04 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.75 | 1.71 | 54.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 18/10/26, 13:33. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Celta Vigo 1–0 Alavés, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Celta Vigo 10th (12 points), Alavés 11th (12 points).
- Absences: Celta Vigo 0, Alavés 0.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: who is missing
Celta Vigo
- No reported absences
Alavés
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
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Celta Vigo vs Alavés: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Celta Vigo -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.99); Over 1.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our probabilities: Celta Vigo to win 42%, a draw 30%, Alavés to win 28%.
What time and where is kick-off?
18 October 2026, kick-off at 15:15, at Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Celta Vigo: no absences. Alavés: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 39% (odds 2.55); under 2.5 goals is at 61% (odds 1.61).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 46% probability (odds 2.05).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (13.9%); after that come 1–1 (13.2%) and 0–0 (11.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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