Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alavés meet Málaga on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mendizorroza (Victoria-Gasteiz), refereed by Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain. Alavés (59%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Alavés vs Málaga: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Alavés are 11th with 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), whereas Málaga are 20th with 5 points (0W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Alavés have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Málaga average 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alavés: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–10; Málaga: 0W 4D 5L, goals 6–18.
- Head to head. In their 7 meetings so far, Alavés have 4 wins, Málaga have 1 win and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 10–5.
What to expect
Alavés should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (14.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is No to both teams scoring (odds 1.80), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 7; Alavés 4 wins, 2 draws, Málaga 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Alavés 13–10, Málaga 6–18.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Absent: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 54%, best available odds 1.80). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Alavés are missing: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga are without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.69 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.63 | 3.81 | 5.96 |
| Lowest odds | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.74 | 53.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 23/10/26, 18:08. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Alavés 1–0 Málaga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alavés 11th (12 points), Málaga 20th (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Alavés 3W 2D 4L (13:10), Málaga 0W 4D 5L (6:18).
- H2H: 7 matches: Alavés 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Absences: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Alavés vs Málaga: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Alavés vs Málaga: who is missing
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
Málaga
- J. Cruzmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Lobeteknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Martinezfoot injury · will miss the match
- J. Munozcalf injury · will miss the match
- D. Murilloknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ochoaknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Alavés
Home and away
Alavés vs Málaga: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AlavésLDLLDMálagaLDLDLAlavés vs Málaga: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Alavés vs Málaga: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Alavés vs Málaga?
Our result tip is Alavés to win (odds 1.69), and our goals tip is No to both teams scoring (odds 1.80). The safer pick is Alavés or draw (1X).
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
Our probabilities: Alavés to win 59%, a draw 25%, Málaga to win 16%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz. Referee: Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.10); under 2.5 goals is at 54% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 46% probability (odds 2.10).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (14.0%); after that come 2–0 (11.9%) and 1–1 (11.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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