Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 6–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Barcelona are at home to Alavés on 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Spotify Camp Nou (Barcelona), with Adrian Cordero Vega as the referee. Our favourites are Barcelona (86%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Barcelona vs Alavés: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Barcelona are 1st with 30 points after 11 matches (10W 0D 1L), whereas Alavés are 11th with 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Barcelona have scored 4.0 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Alavés average 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Barcelona: 9W 0D 1L, goals 40–11; Alavés: 3W 3D 4L, goals 14–11.
- Head to head. In their 19 meetings so far, Barcelona have 15 wins, Alavés have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 51–12.
What to expect
Barcelona should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 3–0 (10.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.13, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.68), and our probability for it is 61%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 19; Barcelona 15 wins, 2 draws, Alavés 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Barcelona 40–11, Alavés 14–11.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 78%.
- Absent: Barcelona 6, Alavés 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.90). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Barcelona are missing: R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, X. Espart, D. Olmo, E. Garcia, J. Kounde. Alavés are without: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Barcelona vs Alavés: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.13 | 11.20 | 23.00 |
| Market average | 1.11 | 10.48 | 19.89 |
| Lowest odds | 1.08 | 8.30 | 12.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.04 | 89.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.20 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.80 | 4.34 | 21.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.90 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 17:50. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Barcelona 3–0 Alavés, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Barcelona 1st (30 points), Alavés 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Barcelona 9W 0D 1L (40:11), Alavés 3W 3D 4L (14:11).
- H2H: 19 matches: Barcelona 15W 2D 2L, goals 51–12.
- Absences: Barcelona 6, Alavés 2.
Who will win Barcelona vs Alavés?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Barcelona vs Alavés: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Barcelona vs Alavés: who is missing
Barcelona
- R. Bardghjiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Christensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- X. Espartankle injury · will miss the match
- D. Olmogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Garciamuscle injury · doubtful
- J. Koundeankle injury · doubtful
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Barcelona vs Alavés: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Barcelona
Home and away
Barcelona vs Alavés: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BarcelonaWLWWWAlavésLDLLDBarcelona vs Alavés: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Barcelona vs Alavés: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Barcelona vs Alavés?
Our result tip is Barcelona to win (odds 1.13), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.68). The safer pick is Barcelona or draw (1X).
Who will win Barcelona vs Alavés?
Our probabilities: Barcelona to win 86%, a draw 9%, Alavés to win 5%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona. Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega.
Who will be missing?
Barcelona: R. Bardghji, A. Christensen, X. Espart, D. Olmo, E. Garcia, J. Kounde. Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 78% (odds 1.25); under 2.5 goals is at 22% (odds 4.80).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.90).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 3–0 (10.3%); after that come 2–0 (9.1%) and 4–0 (8.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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