Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Casa Pia are at home to Sporting CP on 30 October 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Mayor), with Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca as the referee. Our favourites are Sporting CP (74%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 11.10 | 6.36 | 1.32 |
| Market average | 9.92 | 5.79 | 1.27 |
| Lowest odds | 7.24 | 4.84 | 1.22 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.50 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.29 | 41.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 51.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:09. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Casa Pia 17th (7 points), Sporting CP 3rd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Casa Pia 2W 1D 6L (5:17), Sporting CP 5W 3D 1L (21:11).
- H2H: 10 matches: Casa Pia 0W 0D 10L, goals 7–31.
- Absences: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: who is missing
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Sporting CP
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Casa Pia
Home and away
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Casa Pia are 17th with 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), whereas Sporting CP are 3rd with 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Casa Pia have scored 0.6 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Sporting CP average 2.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Casa Pia: 2W 1D 6L, goals 5–17; Sporting CP: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–11.
- Head to head. In their 10 meetings so far, Casa Pia have 0 wins, Sporting CP have 10 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 7–31.
What to expect
Sporting CP should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 0–2 (12.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.55), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 10; Casa Pia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting CP 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Casa Pia 5–17, Sporting CP 21–11.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 62%.
- Absent: Casa Pia 0, Sporting CP 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 59%, best available odds 1.65). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Casa Pia are missing: no absences. Sporting CP are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Casa PiaLWLWLSporting CPWLWDDCasa Pia vs Sporting CP: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our result tip is Sporting CP to win (odds 1.32), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.55). The safer pick is Draw or Sporting CP (X2).
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our probabilities: Casa Pia to win 10%, a draw 16%, Sporting CP to win 74%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 20:15, at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Mayor. Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca.
Who will be missing?
Casa Pia: no absences. Sporting CP: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.55); under 2.5 goals is at 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–2 (12.2%); after that come 0–3 (10.0%) and 0–1 (10.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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