Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth meet Leeds on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), refereed by Michael Salisbury. We expect very little between them. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bournemouth are 8th with 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), whereas Leeds are 12th with 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Bournemouth have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Leeds average 1.1 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–13; Leeds: 2W 5D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Bournemouth have 3 wins, Leeds have 4 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 19–16.
What to expect
Bournemouth should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Bournemouth 3 wins, 2 draws, Leeds 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Bournemouth 12–13, Leeds 9–6.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bournemouth are missing: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds are without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.17 | 3.56 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.38 | 3.51 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.08 | 3.01 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.08 | 44.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 8th (12 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 2W 3D 3L (12:13), Leeds 2W 5D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 9 matches: Bournemouth 3W 2D 4L, goals 19–16.
- Absences: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bournemouth vs Leeds: who is missing
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Jamesback injury · doubtful
- A. Stachfoot injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bournemouth
Home and away
Bournemouth vs Leeds: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWWWLLLeedsLDDLDBournemouth vs Leeds: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Bournemouth vs Leeds: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Over 2.5 goals (1.95); Bournemouth or draw (1X) (1.32).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Our probabilities: Bournemouth to win 45%, a draw 28%, Leeds to win 27%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: Michael Salisbury.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.95); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.2%); after that come 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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