Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Manchester United v Bournemouth is on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Old Trafford (Manchester); Jarred Gillett takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.49 | 3.55 | 3.08 |
| Market average | 2.41 | 3.45 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.80 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Manchester United 1–1 Bournemouth, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester United 17th (7 points), Bournemouth 8th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester United 1W 4D 2L (10:10), Bournemouth 1W 3D 3L (9:13).
- H2H: 20 matches: Manchester United 10W 5D 5L, goals 39–29.
- Absences: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: who is missing
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. J. Kroupifoot injury · doubtful
- V. Milosavljevicabsence · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Manchester United
Home and away
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Manchester United are 17th with 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L), whereas Bournemouth are 8th with 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Manchester United have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Bournemouth average 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Manchester United: 1W 4D 2L, goals 10–10; Bournemouth: 1W 3D 3L, goals 9–13.
- Head to head. In their 20 meetings so far, Manchester United have 10 wins, Bournemouth have 5 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 39–29.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.1%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Bournemouth are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and our probability for it is 58%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 20; Manchester United 10 wins, 5 draws, Bournemouth 5 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Manchester United 10–10, Bournemouth 9–13.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Manchester United are missing: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth are without: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Manchester UnitedLLDDDBournemouthWWWLLManchester United vs Bournemouth: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our result tip is Manchester United or draw (1X) (odds 1.45), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.62). The safer pick is Manchester United or draw (1X).
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our probabilities: Manchester United to win 40%, a draw 28%, Bournemouth to win 33%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Old Trafford, Manchester. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.86); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.1%); after that come 1–0 (9.3%) and 2–1 (8.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.