Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alverca are at home to Arouca on 24 October 2026 · 18:00 at FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo), with P. Ramalho as the referee. Our favourites are Alverca (46%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Alverca vs Arouca: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Alverca are 10th with 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), whereas Arouca are 5th with 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Alverca have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Arouca average 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alverca: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–12; Arouca: 4W 2D 2L, goals 11–7.
- Head to head. In their 3 meetings so far, Alverca have 1 win, Arouca have 2 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 2–3.
What to expect
Alverca should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Arouca are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 3; Alverca 1 win, 0 draws, Arouca 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Alverca 13–12, Arouca 11–7.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Alverca are missing: no absences. Arouca are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Alverca vs Arouca: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.13 | 3.45 | 3.97 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.31 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.18 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.22 | 29.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 14:24. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Alverca 1–1 Arouca, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alverca 10th (11 points), Arouca 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Alverca 3W 2D 3L (13:12), Arouca 4W 2D 2L (11:7).
- H2H: 3 matches: Alverca 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–3.
- Absences: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Alverca vs Arouca: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Alverca vs Arouca: who is missing
Alverca
- No reported absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Alverca vs Arouca: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Alverca
Home and away
Alverca vs Arouca: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AlvercaLLWWWAroucaWWWDLAlverca vs Arouca: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Alverca vs Arouca: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.81); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
Our probabilities: Alverca to win 46%, a draw 28%, Arouca to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 18:00, at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo. Referee: P. Ramalho.
Who will be missing?
Alverca: no absences. Arouca: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.95); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.75).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.3%); after that come 1–0 (11.1%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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