Bet with MINO CASINO →AZ Alkmaar meet Groningen on 8 November 2026 · 15:45 at AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar). AZ Alkmaar (61%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L), whereas Groningen are 8th with 15 points (4W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. AZ Alkmaar have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Groningen average 2.4 scored and 2.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 3L, goals 20–13; Groningen: 4W 3D 4L, goals 26–24.
- Head to head. In their 34 meetings so far, AZ Alkmaar have 16 wins, Groningen have 9 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 52–35.
What to expect
AZ Alkmaar should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 34; AZ Alkmaar 16 wins, 9 draws, Groningen 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: AZ Alkmaar 20–13, Groningen 26–24.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: AZ Alkmaar 0, Groningen 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 64%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
AZ Alkmaar are missing: no absences. Groningen are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.55 | 4.69 | 5.52 |
| Market average | 1.52 | 4.48 | 5.29 |
| Lowest odds | 1.46 | 4.05 | 4.69 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.38 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.95 | 2.90 | 32.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.01 | 47.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.55 | 36.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Groningen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 3L (20:13), Groningen 4W 3D 4L (26:24).
- H2H: 34 matches: AZ Alkmaar 16W 9D 9L, goals 52–35.
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 0, Groningen 0.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: who is missing
AZ Alkmaar
- No reported absences
Groningen
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarLLDLWGroningenLDLWWAZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: questions and answers
What is the best tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our result tip is AZ Alkmaar to win (odds 1.55), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our probabilities: AZ Alkmaar to win 61%, a draw 21%, Groningen to win 18%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 15:45, at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: no absences. Groningen: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.41); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 2.95).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 64% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.6%); after that come 1–1 (8.3%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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