Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen are at home to Sparta Rotterdam on 1 November 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen), with Martijn Vos as the referee. Our favourites are Groningen (54%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.80 | 4.38 | 4.29 |
| Market average | 1.74 | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.68 | 3.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.42 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.76 | 33.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.64 | 35.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 13:02. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Groningen 4W 3D 3L (24:21), Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 5L (17:24).
- H2H: 17 matches: Groningen 5W 3D 9L, goals 22–30.
- Absences: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: who is missing
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Groningen are 8th with 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L), whereas Sparta Rotterdam are 11th with 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Groningen have scored 2.4 and conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Sparta Rotterdam average 1.7 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Groningen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 24–21; Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 5L, goals 17–24.
- Head to head. In their 17 meetings so far, Groningen have 5 wins, Sparta Rotterdam have 9 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 22–30.
What to expect
Groningen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 17; Groningen 5 wins, 3 draws, Sparta Rotterdam 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Groningen 24–21, Sparta Rotterdam 17–24.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Absent: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best available odds 1.79). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Groningen are missing: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam are without: S. Mito. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
GroningenLDLWWSparta RotterdamWLWDLGroningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: head to head
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Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our result tip is Groningen to win (odds 1.80), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45). The safer pick is Groningen or draw (1X).
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our probabilities: Groningen to win 54%, a draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam to win 23%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 15:45, at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Martijn Vos.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.45); under 2.5 goals is at 34% (odds 2.89).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.45).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.6%); after that come 1–1 (9.3%) and 2–0 (7.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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