Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen v Groningen is on 25 October 2026 · 13:30 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen); Martin Van den Kerkhof takes charge. We think NEC Nijmegen (46%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 11 points after 11 matches (2W 5D 4L), whereas Groningen are 8th with 15 points (4W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. NEC Nijmegen have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Groningen average 2.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. NEC Nijmegen: 2W 4D 3L, goals 15–16; Groningen: 4W 2D 3L, goals 22–19.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, NEC Nijmegen have 10 wins, Groningen have 7 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 47–39.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Groningen are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; NEC Nijmegen 10 wins, 7 draws, Groningen 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: NEC Nijmegen 15–16, Groningen 22–19.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Absent: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.05). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
NEC Nijmegen are missing: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen are without: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.10 | 4.10 | 3.31 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.94 | 3.17 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 12:59. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: NEC Nijmegen 2W 4D 3L (15:16), Groningen 4W 2D 3L (22:19).
- H2H: 24 matches: NEC Nijmegen 10W 7D 7L, goals 47–39.
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: who is missing
NEC Nijmegen
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · doubtful
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
NEC Nijmegen
Home and away
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
NEC NijmegenLDDDDGroningenLDLWWNEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: questions and answers
What is the best tip for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Groningen +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 3.5 goals (1.88).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our probabilities: NEC Nijmegen to win 46%, a draw 24%, Groningen to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 13:30, at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 67% (odds 1.42); under 2.5 goals is at 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 69% probability (odds 1.36).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.3%); after that come 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.