Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar v Twente is on 25 October 2026 · 19:00 at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） (Alkmaar); Alex Bos takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.30 | 3.94 | 3.05 |
| Market average | 2.22 | 3.78 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 35.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.17 | 43.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.71 | 34.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points), Twente 4th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 1L (20:10), Twente 5W 2D 2L (17:10).
- H2H: 35 matches: AZ Alkmaar 18W 5D 12L, goals 60–48.
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: who is missing
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Clasieknock · doubtful
Twente
- M. Brunsnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Lemkinmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Thorvaldsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Unnerstallnot in the squad · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points after 11 matches (6W 2D 3L), whereas Twente are 4th with 23 points (7W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. AZ Alkmaar have scored 2.2 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Twente average 1.9 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 1L, goals 20–10; Twente: 5W 2D 2L, goals 17–10.
- Head to head. In their 35 meetings so far, AZ Alkmaar have 18 wins, Twente have 12 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 60–48.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 35; AZ Alkmaar 18 wins, 5 draws, Twente 12 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: AZ Alkmaar 20–10, Twente 17–10.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Absent: AZ Alkmaar 4, Twente 4.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
AZ Alkmaar are missing: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Twente are without: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarLLDLWTwenteWWLDWAZ Alkmaar vs Twente: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: questions and answers
What is the best tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our result tip is AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X) (odds 1.44), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our probabilities: AZ Alkmaar to win 42%, a draw 25%, Twente to win 33%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar. Referee: Alex Bos.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Clasie. Twente: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 64% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 66% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.0%); after that come 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.