Bet with MINO CASINO →Atlético Madrid v Barcelona is on 8 November 2026 · 20:00 at Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid). We think Barcelona (51%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.82 | 4.41 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 3.57 | 4.16 | 1.85 |
| Lowest odds | 3.21 | 3.74 | 1.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.07 | 87.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.32 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.27 | 28.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 1.83 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.1% |
| BTTS – no | 3.30 | 3.11 | 29.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:45. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Atlético Madrid 1–2 Barcelona, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atlético Madrid 2nd (28 points), Barcelona 1st (30 points).
- Form in the competition: Atlético Madrid 9W 1D 1L (22:8), Barcelona 10W 0D 1L (46:12).
- H2H: 43 matches: Atlético Madrid 8W 9D 26L, goals 44–73.
- Absences: Atlético Madrid 0, Barcelona 0.
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: who is missing
Atlético Madrid
- No reported absences
Barcelona
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Atlético Madrid
Home and away
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Atlético Madrid are 2nd with 28 points after 11 matches (9W 1D 1L), whereas Barcelona are 1st with 30 points (10W 0D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Atlético Madrid have scored 2.0 and conceded 0.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Barcelona average 4.2 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atlético Madrid: 9W 1D 1L, goals 22–8; Barcelona: 10W 0D 1L, goals 46–12.
- Head to head. In their 43 meetings so far, Atlético Madrid have 8 wins, Barcelona have 26 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 44–73.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–2 (8.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 43; Atlético Madrid 8 wins, 9 draws, Barcelona 26 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Atlético Madrid 22–8, Barcelona 46–12.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 71%.
- Absent: Atlético Madrid 0, Barcelona 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.07). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Atlético Madrid are missing: no absences. Barcelona are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Atlético MadridWWWWWBarcelonaWLWWWAtlético Madrid vs Barcelona: head to head
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Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona?
Our result tip is Barcelona to win (odds 1.90), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89). The safer pick is Draw or Barcelona (X2).
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona?
Our probabilities: Atlético Madrid to win 26%, a draw 23%, Barcelona to win 51%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.
Who will be missing?
Atlético Madrid: no absences. Barcelona: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 71% (odds 1.35); under 2.5 goals is at 29% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 70% probability (odds 1.36).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (8.9%); after that come 1–1 (8.2%) and 2–2 (6.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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