Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Arouca meet Nacional on 1 November 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Aruca), refereed by Luís Miguel Branco Godinho. Arouca (59%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Arouca vs Nacional: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Arouca are 5th with 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), whereas Nacional are 15th with 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Arouca have scored 1.3 and conceded 0.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Nacional average 1.1 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Arouca: 5W 2D 2L, goals 12–7; Nacional: 2W 1D 6L, goals 10–18.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Arouca have 7 wins, Nacional have 2 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 23–14.
What to expect
Arouca should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.90), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Arouca 7 wins, 5 draws, Nacional 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Arouca 12–7, Nacional 10–18.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Arouca are missing: no absences. Nacional are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.71 | 4.24 | 5.78 |
| Market average | 1.59 | 3.99 | 5.39 |
| Lowest odds | 1.53 | 3.46 | 4.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.84 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.96 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.04 | 30.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 13:45. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Arouca 1–0 Nacional, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Arouca 5th (20 points), Nacional 15th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Arouca 5W 2D 2L (12:7), Nacional 2W 1D 6L (10:18).
- H2H: 14 matches: Arouca 7W 5D 2L, goals 23–14.
- Absences: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Arouca vs Nacional: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Arouca vs Nacional: who is missing
Arouca
- No reported absences
Nacional
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Arouca
Home and away
Arouca vs Nacional: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AroucaWWWDLNacionalLWLLLArouca vs Nacional: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Arouca vs Nacional: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Over 2.5 goals (1.90).
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Our probabilities: Arouca to win 59%, a draw 24%, Nacional to win 18%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 15:30, at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. Referee: Luís Miguel Branco Godinho.
Who will be missing?
Arouca: no absences. Nacional: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.90); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.87).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (11.8%); after that come 2–0 (10.9%) and 1–1 (10.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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