Bet with MINO CASINO →West Brom v Southampton is on 3 November 2026 · 20:00 at The Hawthorns (West Bromwich); Josh Smith takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
West Brom vs Southampton: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, West Brom are 4th with 24 points after 13 matches (7W 3D 3L), whereas Southampton are 5th with 23 points (8W 3D 2L).
- Attack and defence. West Brom have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Southampton average 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. West Brom: 7W 3D 3L, goals 19–14; Southampton: 8W 3D 2L, goals 28–13.
- Head to head. In their 21 meetings so far, West Brom have 5 wins, Southampton have 12 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 19–26.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 21; West Brom 5 wins, 4 draws, Southampton 12 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: West Brom 19–14, Southampton 28–13.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: West Brom 3, Southampton 1.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 61%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
West Brom are missing: T. Collyer, N. Galves, M. Johnston. Southampton are without: C. Larin. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
West Brom vs Southampton: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| Market average | 2.45 | 3.46 | 2.69 |
| Lowest odds | 2.32 | 3.24 | 2.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.20 | 77.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.69 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.21 | 2.14 | 44.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.68 | 34.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.35 | 39.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: West Brom 1–1 Southampton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: West Brom 4th (24 points), Southampton 5th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: West Brom 7W 3D 3L (19:14), Southampton 8W 3D 2L (28:13).
- H2H: 21 matches: West Brom 5W 4D 12L, goals 19–26.
- Absences: West Brom 3, Southampton 1.
Who will win West Brom vs Southampton?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
West Brom vs Southampton: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
West Brom vs Southampton: who is missing
West Brom
- T. Collyerinjury · will miss the match
- N. Galvesknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonbroken leg · will miss the match
Southampton
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
West Brom vs Southampton: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
West Brom
Home and away
West Brom vs Southampton: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
West BromWDWWLSouthamptonWWDWWWest Brom vs Southampton: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
West Brom vs Southampton: questions and answers
What is the best tip for West Brom vs Southampton?
Our result tip is West Brom or draw (1X) (odds 1.47), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47). The safer pick is West Brom or draw (1X).
Who will win West Brom vs Southampton?
Our probabilities: West Brom to win 38%, a draw 27%, Southampton to win 35%.
What time and where is kick-off?
3 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at The Hawthorns, West Bromwich. Referee: Josh Smith.
Who will be missing?
West Brom: T. Collyer, N. Galves, M. Johnston. Southampton: C. Larin. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.75); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.21).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 61% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.6%); after that come 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–0 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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