Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Norwich v Watford is on 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Carrow Road (Norwich); Ben Speedie takes charge. We think Norwich (64%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Norwich vs Watford: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Norwich are 15th with 15 points after 13 matches (5W 0D 8L), whereas Watford are 21st with 11 points (3W 2D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Norwich have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Watford average 0.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Norwich: 4W 0D 8L, goals 20–22; Watford: 3W 2D 7L, goals 10–20.
- Head to head. In their 21 meetings so far, Norwich have 10 wins, Watford have 11 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 37–31.
What to expect
Norwich should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 61%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 21; Norwich 10 wins, 0 draws, Watford 11 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Norwich 20–22, Watford 10–20.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.60). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Norwich are missing: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Watford are without: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Norwich vs Watford: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.52 | 4.80 | 6.68 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.52 | 6.05 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 3.92 | 4.81 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.51 | 2.39 | 39.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.36 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.12 | 43.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 09:42. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Norwich 2–1 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Norwich 15th (15 points), Watford 21st (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Norwich 4W 0D 8L (20:22), Watford 3W 2D 7L (10:20).
- H2H: 21 matches: Norwich 10W 0D 11L, goals 37–31.
- Absences: Norwich 6, Watford 5.
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Norwich vs Watford: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Norwich vs Watford: who is missing
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
- M. Topicabsence · doubtful
Watford
- M. Antonionot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Coulibalyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Norwich vs Watford: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Norwich
Home and away
Norwich vs Watford: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
NorwichWWLLLWatfordLLWLLNorwich vs Watford: head to head
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Norwich vs Watford: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Norwich vs Watford?
Our result tip is Norwich to win (odds 1.52), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is Norwich or draw (1X).
Who will win Norwich vs Watford?
Our probabilities: Norwich to win 64%, a draw 21%, Watford to win 16%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Carrow Road, Norwich. Referee: Ben Speedie.
Who will be missing?
Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson, M. Topic. Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.51).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.9%); after that come 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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