Bet with MINO CASINO →Twente are at home to Ajax on 8 November 2026 · 13:30 at De Grolsch Veste (Enschede). We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Twente vs Ajax: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Twente are 4th with 23 points after 11 matches (7W 2D 2L), whereas Ajax are 2nd with 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Twente have scored 2.5 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Ajax average 2.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Twente: 7W 2D 2L, goals 28–10; Ajax: 7W 3D 1L, goals 30–13.
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, Twente have 6 wins, Ajax have 16 wins and 10 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 38–64.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; Twente 6 wins, 10 draws, Ajax 16 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Twente 28–10, Ajax 30–13.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Absent: Twente 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best available odds 1.80). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Twente are missing: no absences. Ajax are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Twente vs Ajax: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.31 | 3.95 | 2.91 |
| Market average | 2.24 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Lowest odds | 2.15 | 3.43 | 2.54 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.12 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | 1.42 | 65.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.73 | 34.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.83 | 32.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Twente 1–1 Ajax, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Twente 4th (23 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Twente 7W 2D 2L (28:10), Ajax 7W 3D 1L (30:13).
- H2H: 32 matches: Twente 6W 10D 16L, goals 38–64.
- Absences: Twente 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win Twente vs Ajax?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Twente vs Ajax: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Twente vs Ajax: who is missing
Twente
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Twente vs Ajax: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Twente
Home and away
Twente vs Ajax: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
TwenteWWLDWAjaxWWWDDTwente vs Ajax: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Twente vs Ajax: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Twente vs Ajax?
Under 3.5 goals (1.80); Twente or draw (1X) (1.45).
Who will win Twente vs Ajax?
Our probabilities: Twente to win 42%, a draw 25%, Ajax to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 13:30, at De Grolsch Veste, Enschede.
Who will be missing?
Twente: no absences. Ajax: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.46); under 2.5 goals is at 34% (odds 2.90).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 67% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.8%); after that come 2–1 (8.6%) and 1–2 (7.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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