Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–9. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Excelsior are at home to Twente on 1 November 2026 · 13:30 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion (Rotterdam), with Erwin Blank as the referee. Our favourites are Twente (63%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Excelsior vs Twente: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Excelsior are 15th with 11 points after 11 matches (3W 2D 6L), whereas Twente are 4th with 23 points (7W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Excelsior have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Twente average 1.9 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Excelsior: 3W 2D 5L, goals 16–19; Twente: 6W 2D 2L, goals 19–10.
- Head to head. In their 18 meetings so far, Excelsior have 5 wins, Twente have 7 wins and 6 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 18–26.
What to expect
Twente should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 18; Excelsior 5 wins, 6 draws, Twente 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Excelsior 16–19, Twente 19–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Excelsior 0, Twente 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Excelsior are missing: no absences. Twente are without: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, D. Weidmann, L. Unnerstall, B. van Rooij. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Excelsior vs Twente: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 6.50 | 4.90 | 1.53 |
| Market average | 5.82 | 4.61 | 1.48 |
| Lowest odds | 5.32 | 4.20 | 1.42 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.12 | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.45 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.66 | 35.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.15 | 43.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.32 | 2.27 | 40.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 13:02. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Excelsior 1–2 Twente, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Excelsior 15th (11 points), Twente 4th (23 points).
- Form in the competition: Excelsior 3W 2D 5L (16:19), Twente 6W 2D 2L (19:10).
- H2H: 18 matches: Excelsior 5W 6D 7L, goals 18–26.
- Absences: Excelsior 0, Twente 6.
Who will win Excelsior vs Twente?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Excelsior vs Twente: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Excelsior vs Twente: who is missing
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Twente
- M. Brunsnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Lemkinmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Thorvaldsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Weidmannred card · will miss the match
- L. Unnerstallnot in the squad · doubtful
- B. van Rooijinjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Excelsior vs Twente: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Excelsior
Home and away
Excelsior vs Twente: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ExcelsiorLLLLDTwenteWWLDWExcelsior vs Twente: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Excelsior vs Twente: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Excelsior vs Twente?
Excelsior +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Excelsior vs Twente?
Our probabilities: Excelsior to win 16%, a draw 20%, Twente to win 63%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 13:30, at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam. Referee: Erwin Blank.
Who will be missing?
Excelsior: no absences. Twente: M. Bruns, S. Lemkin, F. Thorvaldsen, D. Weidmann, L. Unnerstall, B. van Rooij. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.8%); after that come 0–2 (8.9%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.