Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Madrid are at home to Sevilla on 18 October 2026 · 20:00 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid), with Mateo Busquets Ferrer as the referee. Our favourites are Real Madrid (78%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Real Madrid are 3rd with 27 points after 11 matches (9W 0D 2L), whereas Sevilla are 6th with 17 points (5W 2D 4L).
What to expect
Real Madrid should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–0 (11.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.27, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.91), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 50%, best available odds 1.91). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Real Madrid are missing: no absences. Sevilla are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.27 | 7.21 | 13.00 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.84 | 11.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.38 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 48.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.87 | 49.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 18/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Real Madrid 3rd (27 points), Sevilla 6th (17 points).
- Absences: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: who is missing
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
Sevilla
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
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Real Madrid vs Sevilla: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our result tip is Real Madrid to win (odds 1.27), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.91). The safer pick is Real Madrid or draw (1X).
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our probabilities: Real Madrid to win 78%, a draw 14%, Sevilla to win 8%.
What time and where is kick-off?
18 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer.
Who will be missing?
Real Madrid: no absences. Sevilla: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.39); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.20).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 50% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–0 (11.0%); after that come 3–0 (9.9%) and 2–1 (8.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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