Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 7–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
PSV Eindhoven v Willem II is on 31 October 2026 · 17:45 at Philips Stadion (Eindhoven); Danny Makkelie takes charge. We think PSV Eindhoven (89%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, PSV Eindhoven are 3rd with 23 points after 11 matches (7W 2D 2L), whereas Willem II are 18th with 2 points (0W 2D 9L).
- Attack and defence. PSV Eindhoven have scored 2.8 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Willem II average 1.0 scored and 3.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. PSV Eindhoven: 6W 2D 2L, goals 28–13; Willem II: 0W 2D 8L, goals 10–32.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, PSV Eindhoven have 17 wins, Willem II have 3 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 64–24.
What to expect
PSV Eindhoven should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 4–1, about 5 goals combined, and 3–0 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.09, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Both teams to score (odds 1.79), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; PSV Eindhoven 17 wins, 4 draws, Willem II 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: PSV Eindhoven 28–13, Willem II 10–32.
- We are expecting about 5 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 84%.
- Absent: PSV Eindhoven 6, Willem II 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 53%, best available odds 1.79). Our projection of about 5 goals is in line with it.
Absences
PSV Eindhoven are missing: A. Nagalo, A. Plea, J. Schouten, P. Wanner, S. Lammers, R. Pepi. Willem II are without: J. Hoogma, A. Lachkar, J. Slory. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.09 | 17.50 | 33.00 |
| Market average | 1.07 | 13.31 | 23.88 |
| Lowest odds | 1.04 | 9.06 | 13.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.04 | 1.03 | 92.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.12 | 83.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 6.50 | 5.72 | 16.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.36 | 68.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.79 | 1.76 | 52.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:04. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Willem II, roughly 5 goals in total.
- Table: PSV Eindhoven 3rd (23 points), Willem II 18th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: PSV Eindhoven 6W 2D 2L (28:13), Willem II 0W 2D 8L (10:32).
- H2H: 24 matches: PSV Eindhoven 17W 4D 3L, goals 64–24.
- Absences: PSV Eindhoven 6, Willem II 3.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: who is missing
PSV Eindhoven
- A. Nagaloinjury · will miss the match
- A. Pleaabsence · will miss the match
- J. Schoutenknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Wannerfoot injury · will miss the match
- S. Lammersabsence · doubtful
- R. Pepiinjury · doubtful
Willem II
- J. Hoogmaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Lachkargroin injury · will miss the match
- J. Sloryred card · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
PSV Eindhoven
Home and away
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
PSV EindhovenWDLWLWillem IILLLLLPSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: head to head
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PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: questions and answers
What is the best tip for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our result tip is PSV Eindhoven to win (odds 1.09), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.79). The safer pick is PSV Eindhoven or draw (1X).
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our probabilities: PSV Eindhoven to win 89%, a draw 7%, Willem II to win 4%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. Referee: Danny Makkelie.
Who will be missing?
PSV Eindhoven: A. Nagalo, A. Plea, J. Schouten, P. Wanner, S. Lammers, R. Pepi. Willem II: J. Hoogma, A. Lachkar, J. Slory. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 84% (odds 1.16); under 2.5 goals is at 16% (odds 6.50).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 53% probability (odds 1.79).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 3–0 (9.2%); after that come 4–0 (8.7%) and 3–1 (7.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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