Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Porto meet PSV Eindhoven on 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio do Dragão (Porto), refereed by Daniel Siebert. FC Porto (63%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FC Porto are 34th with 0 points after 3 matches (0W 0D 3L), whereas PSV Eindhoven are 18th with 4 points (1W 1D 1L).
- Head to head. In their 1 meetings so far, FC Porto have 0 wins, PSV Eindhoven have 1 win and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 0–1.
What to expect
FC Porto should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the PSV Eindhoven are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), and our probability for it is 61%. We estimate both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 1; FC Porto 0 wins, 0 draws, PSV Eindhoven 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.0 goals.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.65). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FC Porto are missing: no absences. PSV Eindhoven are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.57 | 4.78 | 6.13 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.57 | 5.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.27 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.53 | 61.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.37 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 43.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC Porto 2–1 PSV Eindhoven, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Porto 34th (0 points), PSV Eindhoven 18th (4 points).
- H2H: 1 match: FC Porto 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: who is missing
FC Porto
- No reported absences
PSV Eindhoven
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2-0-1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1-2-0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0-1-2 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:13 | 0 |
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FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Porto -1 (Asian handicap) (1.89); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our probabilities: FC Porto to win 63%, a draw 21%, PSV Eindhoven to win 17%.
What time and where is kick-off?
20 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Referee: Daniel Siebert.
Who will be missing?
FC Porto: no absences. PSV Eindhoven: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.60); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.60).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 57% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.9%); after that come 2–0 (9.4%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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