Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Padova are at home to Südtirol on 27 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo (Padua), with Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Padova vs Südtirol: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Padova are 9th with 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L), whereas Südtirol are 10th with 14 points (3W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Padova have scored 0.9 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Südtirol average 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Padova: 3W 1D 4L, goals 7–10; Südtirol: 3W 4D 1L, goals 10–7.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Padova have 5 wins, Südtirol have 3 wins and 6 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 13–9.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–0 (12.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.72), and our probability for it is 57%. We estimate both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Padova 5 wins, 6 draws, Südtirol 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Padova 7–10, Südtirol 10–7.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 43%.
- Absent: Padova 0, Südtirol 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 50%, best available odds 1.95). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Padova are missing: no absences. Südtirol are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Padova vs Südtirol: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.36 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 2.13 | 3.08 | 3.59 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 2.93 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.36 | 68.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.19 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.66 | 56.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.11 | 3.89 | 24.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.86 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.85 | 50.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 27/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Padova 1–0 Südtirol, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Padova 9th (14 points), Südtirol 10th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Padova 3W 1D 4L (7:10), Südtirol 3W 4D 1L (10:7).
- H2H: 14 matches: Padova 5W 6D 3L, goals 13–9.
- Absences: Padova 0, Südtirol 0.
Who will win Padova vs Südtirol?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Padova vs Südtirol: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Padova vs Südtirol: who is missing
Padova
- No reported absences
Südtirol
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Padova vs Südtirol: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 10 | 8-2-0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 |  Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ascoli | 10 | 5-4-1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 | Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Padova
Home and away
Padova vs Südtirol: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
PadovaDWWLLSüdtirolDLDLDPadova vs Südtirol: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Padova vs Südtirol: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Padova vs Südtirol?
Our result tip is Padova or draw (1X) (odds 1.36), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.72). The safer pick is Padova or draw (1X).
Who will win Padova vs Südtirol?
Our probabilities: Padova to win 44%, a draw 30%, Südtirol to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
27 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padua. Referee: Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni.
Who will be missing?
Padova: no absences. Südtirol: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 43% (odds 2.31); under 2.5 goals is at 57% (odds 1.72).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 50% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (12.9%); after that come 1–1 (12.9%) and 0–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.