Bet with MINO CASINO →Newcastle meet Arsenal on 21 November 2026 · 17:30 at St. James' Park (Newcastle). Arsenal (59%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.54 | 4.42 | 1.64 |
| Market average | 5.30 | 4.21 | 1.61 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.21 | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.71 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.21 | 43.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.71 | 34.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.71 | 54.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.04 | 45.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:43. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Arsenal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Arsenal 1st (24 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Newcastle vs Arsenal: who is missing
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Arsenal
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Arsenal: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Newcastle are 13th with 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L), whereas Arsenal are 1st with 24 points (8W 0D 1L).
What to expect
Arsenal should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 56%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Newcastle are missing: no absences. Arsenal are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Returns calculator
Newcastle vs Arsenal: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our result tip is Arsenal to win (odds 1.64), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or Arsenal (X2).
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our probabilities: Newcastle to win 18%, a draw 23%, Arsenal to win 59%.
What time and where is kick-off?
21 November 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at St. James' Park, Newcastle.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Arsenal: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.75); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.75).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.2%); after that come 0–1 (10.2%) and 1–2 (10.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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