Liverpool vs Arsenal: tip, odds and prediction – 1 November 2026, Premier League

We back the Liverpool‑Arsenal clash to finish with fewer than 2.5 goals, offering odds of 1.95. Arsenal have conceded just 6.2 expected goals and have produced 24 shots on target in their first eight league fixtures. They have secured five shut‑outs, whereas Liverpool have managed four clean sheets in six matches since early September.

Considering the teams’ recent defensive displays rather than the game’s typical goal‑rich history, Liverpool’s forward line remains dangerous thanks to Alexander Isak, who has found the net in each of his previous six league outings. Arsenal’s offensive potential will hinge on last‑minute fitness news. A swift opener or a dismissal could swing the encounter instantly, making this choice a cautious pick instead of a bold certainty.

Selection: under 2.5 goals in regular time. Odds (decimal): 1.95.
Outcome: successful when the match ends with 0, 1 or 2 goals, unsuccessful if 3 or more are scored.
Break‑even requirement: a success rate exceeding 51.28 % is needed; we lack a reliable calibration to assert a definitive advantage.

When and where Liverpool face Arsenal: schedule details

On Sunday, 1 November 2026, Liverpool will welcome Arsenal at Anfield, with the kick‑off scheduled for 16:30.

In this Premier League clash, Arsenal sit on 21 points after eight fixtures, while Liverpool hold 15. A win for the hosts would cut the margin, yet the standings alone don’t pinpoint the prime betting option.

Liverpool against Arsenal: odds and betting options

• Liverpool win: 2.90
• Draw: 3.50
• Arsenal win: 2.33
• Over 2.5 goals: 1.86
• Under 2.5 goals: 1.95
• Arsenal or draw: 1.37

Although Arsenal carry the lowest odds, popularity does not automatically equal profitability. According to a model, Arsenal’s win probability stands at 41.8 %, Liverpool’s at 32.7 %, and a draw at 25.5 %. With a price of 2.33, an Arsenal victory would require a 42.92 % chance to be profitable.
Thus, this calculation suggests the current price lacks value, yet a single prediction cannot definitively rule out potential worth.

Additional options feature a total of 9.5 corners at 1.83 for both outcomes; Liverpool achieving more than 4.5 corners at 1.75 or fewer at 1.90; Arsenal exceeding 4.5 corners at 1.70 or staying below at 1.95; total cautions above 4.5 at 2.00 and below at 1.66; plus Isak registering over 0.5 offsides at 1.95. Lacking solid matchup‑adjusted data for these occurrences, none offers a stronger justification than the goal count.

Assessing the recent performances of Liverpool and Arsenal

In their last two league outings, Liverpool secured a 2‑1 win away at Brentford and followed it with a 2‑0 triumph over Brighton. Over eight league games they have compiled four victories, three draws and one defeat.

Having secured victory in seven of their first eight Premier League fixtures, Arsenal most recently defeated Everton 2‑0. Their penalty loss to Fleetwood in the League Cup earlier this week is unrelated to their league momentum. The primary argument for backing the under lies in the likelihood of limited scoring opportunities, rather than any storyline about a needed reaction.

Essential data before Liverpool meets Arsenal

Arsenal clean sheets: 5 in 8 league games

Arsenal expected goals against: 6.2 in 8 league games

Arsenal has met 24 on‑target attempts in eight league fixtures

Liverpool clean sheets: 4 in 6 league games since September

Isak recent goals: 6 in his last 6 league appearances

The data reflects recent form, yet it does not assure a similar outcome. A handful of eight league games provides a small dataset, with opponent strength, match circumstances and squad selections influencing the statistics. Shut‑out tallies serve as supplementary information, rather than a precise likelihood for a sub‑2.5‑goal result.

Previous clashes between Liverpool and Arsenal

In the most recent pair of league fixtures, just a single goal was recorded – netted by Dominik Szoboszlai during Liverpool’s victory on home turf. By comparison, the 19 league clashes spanning January 2016 to May 2025 each featured a minimum of two goals, with the games averaging 4.1 goals overall.

In the previous thirteen visits to Liverpool in the Premier League, Arsenal have failed to secure a win, recording five stalemates and eight losses. While this history offers insight, it shouldn't alone dictate a prediction for a home fixture. Changes in personnel, coaching staff, and match circumstances mean that recent defensive statistics should be given greater consideration.

Latest squad updates and standout players for Liverpool and Arsenal

The coach noted that Bukayo Saka is making progress yet still requires additional minutes, and Noni Madueke’s chance to feature hinges on his performance in Saturday’s training. Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Christos Tzolis all took part in training and may be selected provided nothing goes wrong. Max Dowman’s request to overturn his red‑card was denied.

Liverpool now has the possibility of seeing Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Muñoz back in action. Florian Wirtz has already made his comeback after an ankle issue in the match versus Chelsea. Earlier reports that listed these players as certain absentees should be revisited in light of the new information.

Isak’s recent goal streak positions him as Liverpool’s top solo danger according to the latest statistics. Arsenal’s defensive organization currently stands out as the most robust element of the under scenario. Since the official line‑ups have not been released, any projected XI should not be treated as definitive.

Match information

• Competition: Premier League
• Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
• Date: Sunday, 1 November 2026
• Kick‑off: 16:30
• Referee: Andrew Madley

Match outlook: Liverpool against Arsenal

How will the Liverpool versus Arsenal clash turn out?

We back the under 2.5 goals market at 1.95, assigning a moderate level of confidence and noting the absence of a quantified edge.

Why not back Arsenal to win?

While they lead the odds, the model predicts a 41.8 % chance, which is under the 42.92 % break‑even level required for odds of 2.33, rendering the price unattractive.

Seeking a more challenging player wager?

No definitive conclusion can be drawn from the data presently. The reviewed shooting and off‑side incidents were measured against the offered markets, but the absence of matchup‑specific probability adjustments blocks a more solid player‑prop assertion.

What could change the pick?

A significantly reduced cost, surprise offensive formations or recent injury updates call for a revised evaluation.