Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen are at home to NEC Nijmegen on 31 October 2026 · 17:45 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen), with Sander van der Eijk as the referee. Our favourites are Heerenveen (45%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.14 | 4.18 | 3.28 |
| Market average | 2.07 | 3.91 | 3.04 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.36 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.06 | 30.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.92 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.34 | 69.5% |
| BTTS – no | 3.25 | 3.05 | 30.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:04. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Heerenveen 4W 3D 3L (18:13), NEC Nijmegen 2W 5D 3L (17:18).
- H2H: 23 matches: Heerenveen 6W 9D 8L, goals 28–34.
- Absences: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: who is missing
Heerenveen
- L. Smansnot in the squad · doubtful
NEC Nijmegen
- D. Geigernot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · will miss the match
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Heerenveen are 7th with 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L), whereas NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 11 points (2W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Heerenveen have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; NEC Nijmegen average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Heerenveen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 18–13; NEC Nijmegen: 2W 5D 3L, goals 17–18.
- Head to head. In their 23 meetings so far, Heerenveen have 6 wins, NEC Nijmegen have 8 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 28–34.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.90), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 23; Heerenveen 6 wins, 9 draws, NEC Nijmegen 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Heerenveen 18–13, NEC Nijmegen 17–18.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Absent: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, best available odds 2.05). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Heerenveen are missing: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen are without: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
HeerenveenWWWLWNEC NijmegenLDDDDHeerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our result tip is Heerenveen to win (odds 2.14), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.90). The safer pick is Heerenveen or draw (1X).
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our probabilities: Heerenveen to win 45%, a draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen to win 31%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 69% (odds 1.43); under 2.5 goals is at 31% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 69% probability (odds 1.36).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.0%); after that come 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.