Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard is on 18 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen); Alex Bos takes charge. We think NEC Nijmegen (55%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 11 points after 11 matches (2W 5D 4L), whereas Fortuna Sittard are 6th with 19 points (5W 4D 2L).
What to expect
NEC Nijmegen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Fortuna Sittard are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: NEC Nijmegen 0, Fortuna Sittard 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
NEC Nijmegen are missing: no absences. Fortuna Sittard are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.76 | 4.33 | 4.38 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 1.43 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.85 | 2.65 | 35.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.11 | 44.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.54 | 36.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 18/10/26, 16:40. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points), Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points).
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 0, Fortuna Sittard 0.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: who is missing
NEC Nijmegen
- No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: questions and answers
What is the best tip for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our result tip is NEC Nijmegen to win (odds 1.76), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48). The safer pick is NEC Nijmegen or draw (1X).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our probabilities: NEC Nijmegen to win 55%, a draw 23%, Fortuna Sittard to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
18 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Alex Bos.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: no absences. Fortuna Sittard: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.48); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.85).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.7%); after that come 1–1 (9.5%) and 2–0 (7.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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