Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard are at home to Excelsior on 25 October 2026 · 11:15 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion (Sitard), with Ingmar Oostrom as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.72 | 3.59 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.44 | 2.57 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.75 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 09:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Excelsior, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fortuna Sittard 4W 3D 2L (16:17), Excelsior 3W 2D 4L (16:18).
- H2H: 9 matches: Fortuna Sittard 5W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Absences: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: who is missing
Fortuna Sittard
- R. Bayramknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Dahlhausnot in the squad · will miss the match
- I. Marquezinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Oukiligroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Guthnot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Ihattareninjury · doubtful
- E. Michutnot in the squad · doubtful
- O. Romenyankle injury · doubtful
- L. Zeefuiknot in the squad · doubtful
Excelsior
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Fortuna Sittard
Home and away
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Fortuna Sittard are 6th with 19 points after 11 matches (5W 4D 2L), whereas Excelsior are 15th with 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Fortuna Sittard have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Excelsior average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fortuna Sittard: 4W 3D 2L, goals 16–17; Excelsior: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–18.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Fortuna Sittard have 5 wins, Excelsior have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 16–11.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Fortuna Sittard are stronger, but the betting market gives the away side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Fortuna Sittard 5 wins, 2 draws, Excelsior 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Fortuna Sittard 16–17, Excelsior 16–18.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Draw or Excelsior (X2)
Alternative pick: Draw or Excelsior (X2) (probability 64%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Fortuna Sittard are missing: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Fortuna SittardDWDDWExcelsiorLLLLDFortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: head to head
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Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Our result tip is Draw or Excelsior (X2) (odds 1.50), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47). The safer pick is Draw or Excelsior (X2).
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Our probabilities: Fortuna Sittard to win 36%, a draw 27%, Excelsior to win 37%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 11:15, at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard. Referee: Ingmar Oostrom.
Who will be missing?
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.79); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.7%); after that come 1–2 (8.5%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.