Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Modena are at home to Cesena on 24 October 2026 · 14:00 at Alberto Braglia (Modena), with Dario Madonia as the referee. Our favourites are Modena (61%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Modena vs Cesena: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Modena are 2nd with 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), whereas Cesena are 12th with 12 points (2W 6D 2L).
- Head to head. In their 10 meetings so far, Modena have 4 wins, Cesena have 3 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 9–6.
What to expect
Modena should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–0 (10.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 10; Modena 4 wins, 3 draws, Cesena 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.5 goals.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 56%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Modena are missing: no absences. Cesena are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Modena vs Cesena: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.57 | 4.34 | 6.15 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.17 | 5.70 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.19 | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.67 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.16 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.64 | 35.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.75 | 53.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.02 | 1.97 | 47.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 11:23. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Modena 2–0 Cesena, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Modena 2nd (20 points), Cesena 12th (12 points).
- H2H: 10 matches: Modena 4W 3D 3L, goals 9–6.
- Absences: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Modena vs Cesena: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Modena vs Cesena: who is missing
Modena
- No reported absences
Cesena
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Modena vs Cesena: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 10 | 8-2-0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ascoli | 10 | 5-4-1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
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Modena vs Cesena: head to head
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Modena vs Cesena: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Modena vs Cesena?
Our result tip is Modena to win (odds 1.57), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49). The safer pick is Modena or draw (1X).
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
Our probabilities: Modena to win 61%, a draw 22%, Cesena to win 16%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Alberto Braglia, Modena. Referee: Dario Madonia.
Who will be missing?
Modena: no absences. Cesena: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.75); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.27).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 53% probability (odds 1.80).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–0 (10.5%); after that come 1–0 (10.5%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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