Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Modena are at home to Mantova on 31 October 2026 · 14:00 at Alberto Braglia (Modena), with Francesco Fourneau as the referee. Our favourites are Modena (52%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Modena vs Mantova: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Modena are 2nd with 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), whereas Mantova are 4th with 18 points (5W 3D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Modena have scored 1.9 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Mantova average 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Modena: 6W 1D 2L, goals 17–9; Mantova: 5W 2D 2L, goals 14–10.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Modena have 4 wins, Mantova have 1 win and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 12–6.
What to expect
Modena should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Modena 4 wins, 4 draws, Mantova 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Modena 17–9, Mantova 14–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: Modena 0, Mantova 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.67). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Modena are missing: no absences. Mantova are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Modena vs Mantova: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.71 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.60 | 4.18 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.32 | 3.64 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.19 | 78.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.67 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.21 | 2.16 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.20 | 42.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 07:09. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Modena 1–1 Mantova, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Modena 2nd (20 points), Mantova 4th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Modena 6W 1D 2L (17:9), Mantova 5W 2D 2L (14:10).
- H2H: 9 matches: Modena 4W 4D 1L, goals 12–6.
- Absences: Modena 0, Mantova 0.
Who will win Modena vs Mantova?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Modena vs Mantova: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Modena vs Mantova: who is missing
Modena
- No reported absences
Mantova
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Modena vs Mantova: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 10 | 8-2-0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ascoli | 10 | 5-4-1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 | Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Modena
Home and away
Modena vs Mantova: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ModenaDWWLWMantovaDLWLWModena vs Mantova: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Modena vs Mantova: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Modena vs Mantova?
Modena -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Modena vs Mantova?
Our probabilities: Modena to win 52%, a draw 26%, Mantova to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Alberto Braglia, Modena. Referee: Francesco Fourneau.
Who will be missing?
Modena: no absences. Mantova: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.72); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.21).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.8%); after that come 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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